2013 Uncle Popov College Football Table [Week 1]

With Week 1 in the books, here is the top 23 for the Uncle Popov College Football Table.  The full list will appear in the “College Football Table” section of the website.

Remember that with bonuses and whatnot, some teams receive a lot of points overall.  In the end, this tends to level off.  So while NC State pulled down 6 points this week (3 for a win; 2 for a win over a Tier 1 team; 1 for a win by a Tier 3 team over a Tier 1 team), the Wolfpack’s early lead is not insurmountable.

WEEK 1

Rank

TEAM

Points

1

North Carolina State

6

2

Clemson

5

3

Bowling Green

4

3

Florida

4

3

LSU

4

3

Louisville

4

3

Mississippi

4

3

Oklahoma

4

3

Oklahoma State

4

3

Penn State

4

3

South Carolina

4

3

Texas A&M

4

3

Utah

4

3

Washington

4

15

Alabama

3.5

15

Arkansas

3.5

15

Cincinnati

3.5

15

Florida State

3.5

15

Michigan

3.5

15

Nebraska

3.5

15

Texas Tech

3.5

15

California-Los Angeles

3.5

15

Virginia

3.5

Tiers for the 2013 Uncle Popov College Football Table

Last year witness yet another modification to the Uncle Popov College Football Poll as we moved from a formula-based poll to one that awards points based on certain types of wins [as well as OT losses, in some cases].  I thought it worked well.

So, this year we continue the Uncle Popov College Football Table with all new tiers.  And, there has been a slight alteration to how the tiers are designed.  Now, Tier 1 — the top tier — only contains 20 teams rather than 31.  The other three tiers contain 35 teams.  This is done so that there are fewer top tier teams and the “bonus” for beating a Tier 1 team is more well-earned.

The rules are still the same.  I thought that the point system was fair and worked quite well.  So, no need to reset that.  As for the Tiers:

Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4
Alabama Arizona Air Force~ Akron
Clemson^ Arkansas State^ Arizona State~ Alabama-Birmingham
Florida Ball State^ Arkansas~ Army~
Georgia Boise State~ Baylor~ Auburn~
Kansas State^ Bowling Green State^ Brigham Young~ Boston College~
Kent State^ Central Florida Central Michigan Buffalo
Louisiana State Cincinnati~ Connecticut~ California~
Louisiana Tech^ East Carolina^ Duke^ Colorado
Louisville^ Florida State Georgia Tech~ Colorado State
Nebraska Fresno State^ Houston~ Eastern Michigan
Northern Illinois^ Iowa State^ Indiana^ Florida Atlantic
Northwestern^ Louisiana-Monroe^ Louisiana-Lafayette Florida International
Notre Dame^ Miami (FL)~ Marshall^ Georgia State~
Ohio State Michigan Memphis^ Hawaii~
Oregon Middle Tennessee State^ Michigan State~ Idaho
San Jose State^ Mississippi State Minnesota Illinois~
South Carolina North Carolina Mississippi~ Iowa~
Stanford Ohio^ Missouri~ Kansas~
Texas A&M^ Oklahoma~ Navy~ Kentucky~
UCLA^ Oklahoma State~ Nevada~ Maryland~
Oregon State North Carolina State~ Massachusetts
Penn State~ Pittsburgh~ Miami (OH)
Rice^ Purdue Nevada-Las Vegas
Rutgers Southern Methodist New Mexico
San Diego State^ Tennessee~ New Mexico State
Southern California~ Texas Tech~ North Texas
Syracuse^ Texas-El Paso^ South Alabama
Texas~ Troy South Florida~
Texas Christian~ Utah~ Southern Mississippi~
Toledo^ Virginia Temple~
Tulsa Virginia Tech~ Texas State
Utah State^ Wake Forest Texas-San Antonio
Vanderbilt^ West Virginia~ Tulane
Washington^ Western Kentucky^ Washington State
Wisconsin~ Wyoming^ Western Michigan~

^ – promoted

~ – relegated

As you can see, teams that performed well last year such as Notre Dame (the 2012 Uncle Popov Champion) and Kent State (who won ten FBS games) moved into Tier 1.  In fact, the Golden Flashes jumped from Tier 4 to Tier 1.  That can happen.  On the other hand, a team like Iowa dropped from Tier 1 to Tier 4.  That’s the cruel fate of this Tier system.

The good thing, however, is that it is very fluid.  However, starting next season, the Tiers will be based on a two-year average rather than just one year.

Now, with one more game to go, the first table for 2013 will be up and ready soon.  And, there will already be eight teams with negative points, including newcomer Georgia State.

 

Uncle Popov College Football Table (Week 5)

Took a couple of weeks off actually updating, we are back to weekly updates.  And, things continue to level off.  Memphis still sucks, while Alabama and Ohio State take hold of the top spot.

Washington had the biggest jump, going from 72nd to a tie at 38.  Middle Tennessee State also had a big jump with its win over Georgia Tech.  Arizona and Wake Forest both fell 23 spots.

Here is the Top 23:

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

1

Alabama

19

2

1

OhioState

19

8

3

Georgia

18.5

5

3

South Carolina

18.5

2

5

California-Los Angeles

18

2

6

Notre Dame

16.5

1

6

Louisiana Tech

16.5

9

8

Ohio

15

11

8

Texas

15

20

10

Florida

14.5

5

10

LSU

14.5

5

10

Louisville

14.5

19

13

Northwestern

14

15

13

Oregon

14

15

15

KansasState

13

9

15

ArizonaState

13

23

17

Clemson

12.5

25

17

OregonState

12.5

25

17

Nebraska

12.5

30

17

San JoseState

12.5

30

21

Miami (FL)

12

29

21

Rutgers

12

11

21

Western Kentucky

12

25

And, the Basement:

117

BostonCollege

0

114

117

California

0

114

117

Navy

0

114

117

New MexicoState

0

114

117

Southern Mississippi

0

114

117

Eastern Michigan

0

114

123

Army

-1

114

123

Memphis

-1

124

Click here to see the entire table for Week 5.

2012 Uncle Popov College Football Table (Week 2)

I told you it would level off…kinda.

Texas State fell from the top spot (though they did gain 0.5 points for losing to a Tier 1 team) as, thanks to win bonuses, Iowa State moved to number one.  Ohio held on to the second spot but is now tied with California-Los Angeles.  Clemson and Michigan State both won, but slid down one slot to fourth.

Meanwhile, more teams were added to the red as Colorado and Eastern Michigan both dropped to -1.  Colorado State and UNLV also lost to FCS schools, but had earned points the previous week to keep them from falling below 0 points.

Once again, here is the top 21:

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

1

Iowa State

10

5

2

Ohio

9

2

2

UCLA

9

22

4

Clemson

8.5

3

4

Michigan State

8.5

3

6

Georgia

8

22

7

Arizona

7.5

40

7

Notre Dame

7.5

5

7

Texas State

7.5

1

10

Alabama

7

5

10

Florida

7

22

10

Northwestern

7

14

10

Ohio State

7

22

10

Oregon

7

14

10

South Carolina

7

14

10

Southern California

7

14

17

LSU

6.5

22

18

Louisiana Tech

6

60

18

Stanford

6

22

18

Texas

6

22

18

Virginia

6

60

For the complete table, click on the “College Football Table” and “Week 2.”

2012 Uncle Popov College Football Table (Week 1)

After one week of college football, we have a clear number one…Texas State!?

Yes, the Bobcats of Texas State sit atop the table after one week.  The reason?  Simple.  The Bobcats beat a Tier 1 school.  That means…3 points for the win, 2 points for beating a Tier 1 team, plus a 2-point bonus for beating a Tier 1 team as a Tier 4 team.

That is correct.  Given that Tier 1 teams love those “easy wins” from the bottom feeders of the FBS, if a Tier 4 team pulls the big upset, should they not be rewarded for it?

On the other end, four teams suffered from their attempt at an easy win.  Idaho, Memphis, Middle Tennessee, and Pittsburgh all lost to an FCS team, which gave them each -1 point.

Now, obviously over time this will level off, but the top three right now consists of Texas State, Ohio, and a tie between Clemson and Michigan State.  Here is how the rest of the Top 21 shapes up [there are 18 teams tied at 22, so I did not include those for sake of brevity and not favoring one team over another):

Rank

TEAM

Points

1

Texas State

7

2

Ohio

6

3

Clemson

5

3

Michigan State

5

5

Alabama

4

5

Iowa

4

5

Iowa State

4

5

Miami (FL)

4

5

Nebraska

4

5

Nevada

4

5

Notre Dame

4

5

Tennessee

4

5

Virginia Tech

4

14

Baylor

3.5

14

Illinois

3.5

14

Louisville

3.5

14

Northwestern

3.5

14

Oregon

3.5

14

South Carolina

3.5

14

Southern California

3.5

14

Washington

3.5

For the complete table, click on the “College Football Table” and “Week 1.”

The NEW Uncle Popov College Football Ranking

So, last year, I set up an amazing “secret” formula to determine the king of college football.  The formula not only incorporated winning into it, but also measures for offensive and defensive efficiency, scoring efficiency, conference “power”, and even recruiting.  AND, it did so covering three-plus seasons of stats.  It was tweaked a bit as the season progressed, but I found it to be fairly objective.  Offensive production was compared to the defenses that the teams face (same for defensive production vis-a-vis offenses faced); recruiting numbers were balanced against the conference for a given team.

The only problem is that it is time consuming to produce.  Once I got down the pattern, it would not take too long.  But, conference realignment meant that I had to adjust for teams that switch conferences.  So, Utah drew three seasons from the Mountain West and one [at the time, the current season] from the Pac-12.  This was going to be made even more challenging this season with more changes, and next season with Boise State pulling stats from three different conferences.

In other words, while I loved the ranking, it was becoming a pain in the ass to produce.  And, it would be a pain to set up for this season.  So, I decided to say fuck it and move on from it [for now…I might re-instate it later].

In its place, however, I am putting forth a new ranking system.  This one will draw its inspiration from the English Premier League, the NHL, and an article from the Wall Street Journal.  Yes, it is a promotion/relegation system, and it is built off of last season’s Uncle Popov Ranking.

The idea here is dividing all 124 FBS tier schools into four sub-tiers.  Because I cannot force schools to schedule according to sub-tier, I have to rely on factors with which I can control/account for.  So, teams are placed into tiers based on two factors from the old Uncle Popov ranking — winning/scheduling and offensive/defensive production.  By combining these together, teams are order based on their points accumulated from the measures.  The four new FBS teams — Massachusetts, South Alabama, Texas State, and UT-San Antonio — were all placed into the fourth tier.

The four tiers are as follows:

TIER 1

TIER 2

TIER 3

TIER 4

Alabama Air Force Arkansas State Akron
Arkansas Arizona Army Bowling Green
Auburn Arizona State Ball State Buffalo
Boise State Baylor Central Michigan Colorado
Cincinnati Boston College East Carolina Colorado State
Florida Brigham Young Fresno State Duke
Georgia California Hawaii Eastern Michigan
Georgia Tech Central Florida Iowa State Florida Atlantic
Houston Clemson Kansas Florida International
Iowa Connecticut Kentucky Idaho
Louisiana State Florida State Louisiana Tech Indiana
Miami (FL) Illinois Louisiana-Lafayette Kent State
Michigan State Kansas State Louisiana-Monroe Marshall
Missouri Louisville Maryland Massachusetts
Nebraska Michigan MTSU Memphis
Nevada Mississippi Minnesota Miami (OH)
Ohio State Mississippi State Ohio Nevada-Las Vegas
Oklahoma Navy Purdue New Mexico
Oklahoma State North Carolina San Diego State New Mexico State
Oregon North Carolina State Southern Methodist North Texas
Penn State Northern Illinois Syracuse Rice
Pittsburgh Northwestern Temple San Jose State
South Carolina Notre Dame Toledo South Alabama
Southern Cal Oregon State Troy Texas State
Stanford Rutgers UCLA Texas-El Paso
Texas South Florida Utah State Texas-San Antonio
Texas Christian Southern Miss Vanderbilt Tulane
Utah Tennessee Virginia UAB
Virginia Tech Texas A&M Wake Forest Washington State
West Virginia Texas Tech Washington Western Kentucky
Wisconsin Tulsa Western Michigan Wyoming

Now, here is how it works.  For all games won in regulation, the winning team earns three points; losers earns nothing.  If the game goes to overtime, the winning teams earns two points and the losing team earns one point.  Fairly straight forward.

Ah, but if all wins are created equal, what is the point of the tiers?  And, how do we differentiate between beating Alabama and beating South Alabama?  Good questions.  Glad I asked.

All wins against Tier 1 teams garner an extra two points for the winner.  So, if Michigan State beats Boise State, the Spartans will receive a total of five points (three for the win; two for beating a Tier 1 team).  Wins against a Tier 2 team will garner one additional point; wins against Tier 3 gives the winner 0.5 points.  No additional points are given for beating Tier 4 schools.

But wait…there’s more!  Since Tier 4 teams are ofter scheduled by teams in the top two tiers, there is a bonus built in for the Tier 4 team.  Losing to a Tier 1 team will give the Tier 4 team one point; losing to a Tier 2 team will give them one-half point.  For a Tier 3 team, only losing to a Tier 1 team will give them a compensation — 0.5 points.  There is no loser compensation for Tier 4 beating a Tier 3, or a Tier 2 beating a Tier 1.

Furthermore, beating an FCS school gets you zero points.  However, losing to an FCS school will deduct one point from your total.  So, for example, Minnesota would have received -1 deduction for losing to eventual National Champions North Dakota State.

Lastly, I am considering giving the lower Tiers an additional bonus for winning against higher-tiered teams.  So, if Western Kentucky pulls off a miracle against Alabama, they should be rewarded for that.  It may also ensure more fluidity in the promotion and relegation.

At the end of the regular season, I will revisit the table and see how it has played out.  I am debating between a full-scale promotion/relegation system where teams ranked in the final standings 1-31 are placed in Tier 1, or if I should rank the four tiers individually and promote and relegate from there.

Nevertheless, football kicks off soon…and I cannot wait to see how this new ranking shapes up.

2011 Uncle Popov Top 23 [Week 14]

 

Wait a minute!  What happened to Weeks 12 and 13!?  Tis what happens when one becomes busy.  But that is okay.  We are still here.

After stating that I would not make any more changes, I made one more — conference titles.  Since the BCS is worthless because of the arbitrary nature of it, I do not care about BCS titles.  But, I decided to add in conference titles.  And, in doing so, a team like Oregon benefited, moving up to number 2 (over LSU).  Adding conference titles also benefits teams like TCU and Boise State.

Biggest winner in the new variable is Florida, moving up 11 spot to number 12.  But, that will come off of the board next season.  Outside of the Top 23, Troy’s three Sun Belt titles catapulted them up 16 spots to number 69.  Biggest loser is Illinois, which fell 19 spots to number 71.

On a side note, the 2011 component of the Uncle Popov Top 23 has Alabama number one, LSU second, and Oklahoma State fifth.  The best explanation that I can provide for that is strength of competition (how a team fares statistically versus its opponents) heavily favors Alabama’s defense; Oklahoma State has a solid offense, but the defenses are not stout enough to tilt the Cowboys way.

WEEK 14!!!

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Alabama

3.000

1

2

Oregon

2.933

3

1

3

LSU

2.917

2

-1

4

TCU

2.908

8

4

5

Boise State

2.883

6

1

6

Oklahoma State

2.825

5

-1

7

Oklahoma

2.825

4

-3

8

Wisconsin

2.792

13

5

9

Southern California

2.750

12

3

10

Virginia Tech

2.692

9

-1

11

Penn State

2.633

7

-4

12

Florida

2.625

23

11

13

Georgia

2.600

10

-3

14

West Virginia

2.600

20

6

15

Stanford

2.583

17

2

16

Texas

2.567

16

17

Arkansas

2.525

14

-3

18

Nebraska

2.508

11

-7

19

Auburn

2.492

24

5

20

South Carolina

2.483

18

-2

21

Ohio State

2.475

15

-6

22

Michigan State

2.458

19

-3

23

Clemson

2.458

22

-1


  • Drop Outs: Florida State (last poll 21th; this week 24th)
  • Newbies: Auburn (last poll 24th; this week 19th)
  • In the Basement (Bottom Five): New Mexico; Tulane; Akron; Army; Indiana

2011 Uncle Popov Top 23 [Week 11]

I think I got it.  I think I got the polls to proper fluidity that gives respect to current success without sacrificing long-term success.  So, there is a lot of movement this week, but it is where I want it.  I do not anticipate any more changes in the formula.  There is a change in how points are tallied, so there is a big difference in that number.  But, beyond tweaking with the points, the formula is satisfactory.

The big thing is that many teams made moves.  Alabama is STILL number one (consistent success), but LSU is now number two and closing in on Alabama.  Georgia jumps up because of recent success, while Florida is punished for recent “failure.”  The biggest total mover is Arkansas State (up 32 spots to #59), while Fresno State takes the greatest fall (down 23 to #78).

WEEK 11!!!

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Alabama

2.9917

1

2

LSU

2.9583

3

1

3

Oregon

2.9083

4

1

4

Oklahoma

2.8917

6

2

5

Oklahoma State

2.8667

8

3

6

Boise State

2.8667

5

-1

7

Penn State

2.7417

15

8

8

TCU

2.7333

2

-6

9

Virginia Tech

2.7083

13

4

10

Georgia

2.6667

23

13

11

Nebraska

2.6417

17

6

12

Southern California

2.6417

19

7

13

Wisconsin

2.6250

14

1

14

Arkansas

2.6167

18

4

15

Ohio State

2.6083

9

-6

16

Texas

2.6000

12

-4

17

Stanford

2.5417

16

-1

18

South Carolina

2.5250

22

4

19

Michigan State

2.5167

21

2

20

West Virginia

2.4750

20

21

Florida State

2.4667

27

6

22

Clemson

2.4583

32

10

23

Florida

2.4250

7

-16

  • Drop Outs: Auburn (last week 10th; this week 24th); Utah (last week 11th; this week 25th)
  • Newbies: Clemson (last week 32nd; this week 22nd); Florida State (last week 27th; this week 21st)
  • In the Basement (Bottom Five): New Mexico; Tulane; Akron; Memphis; Indiana

2011 Uncle Popov Top 23 [Week 10]

Well, after the so-called “Game of the Century” I expected LSU to move up AT LEAST to number 2.  Unfortunately, that did not happen and it kind of irks me.  I am going to do some tweaking with the ranking to see if I can add to the fluidity at the top WITHOUT compromising the formula.

This week, recruiting numbers were updated and it gave an added boost to some teams.

WEEK 10!!!

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Alabama

17.584

1

2

TCU

16.162

2

3

LSU

15.419

3

4

Oregon

15.378

5

1

5

Boise State

15.227

4

-1

6

Oklahoma

15.035

6

7

Florida

14.985

7

8

Oklahoma State

14.544

8

9

Ohio State

14.534

9

10

Auburn

13.992

10

11

Utah

13.893

11

12

Texas

13.716

12

13

Virginia Tech

13.587

13

14

Wisconsin

13.453

17

3

15

Penn State

13.387

14

-1

16

Stanford

13.360

16

17

Nebraska

13.287

15

-2

18

Arkansas

13.085

19

1

19

Southern California

13.067

18

-1

20

West Virginia

12.719

20

21

Michigan State

12.639

21

22

South Carolina

12.551

22

23

Georgia

12.548

23

  • Drop Outs: none
  • Newbies: none
  • In the Basement (Bottom Five): New Mexico; Akron; Eastern Michigan; Western Kentucky^; Washington State^

2011 Uncle Popov Top 23 [Week 9]

Stability in the formula as I think I have it where I like it.  Although, next week the recruiting measure will be updated.

WEEK 9!!!

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Alabama

17.99045546

1

2

TCU

16.2806621

2

3

LSU

15.58805445

4

1

4

Boise State

15.54652753

5

1

5

Oregon

15.54242373

3

-2

6

Oklahoma

15.30340882

6

7

Florida

15.07401864

7

8

Oklahoma State

14.71725992

8

9

Ohio State

14.60374943

9

10

Auburn

14.11952218

10

11

Utah

13.86135749

11

12

Texas

13.76002241

14

2

13

Virginia Tech

13.70759746

12

-1

14

Penn State

13.62646841

15

1

15

Nebraska

13.5726602

17

2

16

Stanford

13.50026617

16

17

Wisconsin

13.49564914

13

-4

18

Southern California

13.15592904

18

19

Arkansas

13.12772031

19

20

West Virginia

12.93126214

21

1

21

Michigan State

12.88445447

20

-1

22

South Carolina

12.82638194

22

23

Georgia

12.71713468

24

1

  • Drop Outs: Texas Tech (last week – 23th; this week – 25th)
  • Newbies: Georgia (last week – 24th; this week – 23rd)
  • Movin’ On Up [biggest leaper]: Tulsa (last week – 46th; this week 42nd)
  • Biggest Loser [largest fall]: Wisconsin (last week 13th; this week 17th) 
  • In the Basement (Bottom Five): New Mexico; Akron; Western Kentucky; Washington State; Eastern Michigan