Chasing a Dream: Historical Stats for the 2011 MLB All-Stars at Chase Field
This blog entry derived out of search entries that directed some people to ‘Uncle Popov.’ Those curious folks were interested in batting averages at Chase Field, home to tonight’s 2011 MLB All-Star Game. So, thanks curious cats!
It is difficult to get excited about a game that is an exhibition, no matter how many times Major League Baseball (and their advertisers) tells us that “this one counts.” No, it is still an exhibition game.
What really counts for MLB is that a lot of people will watch the overhyped exhibition game. And while it is an exhibition, many people are interested in seeing how batters and pitchers that do not normal face each other will do once the game begins, such as Roy Halladay versus Jose Bautista.
Playing in a different park is also worth noting. The All-Star Game gives MLB a chance to showcase its stadiums; sometimes it is a well-known stadium (as in 2008 at [old] Yankee Stadium) and sometimes it is not that well-known, as in this year’s game at Chase Field in Arizona.
Chase Field has been the home of the Arizona Diamondbacks since its inception in 1998. It has hosted college football games, a World Series, and now will host its first All-Star Game. Given that it has been around for over 13 seasons, most players — including many of the All-Stars in tonight’s game — have played at Chase Field.
So, how have they done at the stadium formerly known as BankOne Ballpark? Well, a few things to keep in mind as there are several factors in determining how often a player actually plays in Phoenix. First and most obvious, members of the Diamondbacks have the most appearances. This is typically followed by other NL West teams, then other National League teams, any American League players that have played either with Arizona or in the NL (see Jose Valverde and Carlos Quentin, for example), and lastly the rest of the American League.
In other words, the sampling is going to be varied. Nevertheless…
- NATIONAL LEAGUE ALL-STARS
Hunter Pence has the highest batting average of all NL players, going 0.364 in 55 career at-bats, with three homers and 11 RBIs. He is also 2-for-4 in stolen bases and has struck out 12 times. Of the non-Diamondback players, St. Louis’s Lance Berkman has the most home runs with 13 (far behind D’back Justin Upton’s 47), as well as the most RBIs (38). Los Angeles Dodger Andre Ethier has the most at-bats for a non-D’back (168), while Berkman is second among players not in the NL West (139).
The worst batting average at Chase Field for an NL player is Andrew McCutchen (0.200 in 30 at-bats) and starting shortstop Troy Tulowitzki (0.200 in 130 at-bats). Only one player has never hit a home run at Chase (Chicago Cubs phenom Starlin Castro). And in terms of the two hometown players, Justin Upton ranks eighth in Chase Field batting average (0.305), while catcher Miguel Montero is batting 0.271, good for 15th out of the 21 position players.
Here is a look at the stats for the starting lineup for the National League (in batting order):
- Rickie Weeks (Brewers, 2B) - 0.345; two HRs; five RBIs in 55 at-bats
- Carlos Beltran (Mets, DH) - 0.286; seven HRs; 18 RBIs in 70 at-bats
- Matt Kemp (Dodgers, CF) - 0.306; five HRs; 14 RBIs in 124 at-bats
- Prince Fielder (Brewers, 1B) - 0.288; four HRs; ten RBIs in 66 at-bats
- Brian McCann (Braves, C) - 0.265; one HR; 13 RBIs in 68 at-bats
- Lance Berkman (Cardinals, RF) - 0.302; 13 HRs; 38 RBIs in 139 at-bats
- Matt Holliday (Cardinals, LF) - 0.281; four HRs; 22 RBIs in 167 at-bats
- Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies, SS) - 0.200; five HRs; 14 RBIs in 130 at-bats
- Scott Rolen (Reds, 3B) - 0.256; six HRs; 23 RBIs in 125 at-bats
In terms of pitchers, there are no Diamondback pitchers on the roster. Nevertheless, in terms of ERA, Atlanta Braves reliever Jonny Venters tops everyone with 0.00 ERA in three games. However, he is only 1-0 in those three games, blowing two saves and allowing three unearned runs in his four innings at Chase Field. He is followed by San Francisco Giants closer Brian Wilson, who is posting a 1.62 ERA in 16.2 innings with 15 saves (only one blown save), 21 strikeouts and an NL All-Star best 0.167 batting average against.
The best starter has been Ryan Vogelsong, who is 2-1 in Phoenix with a 1.69 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 16 innings. The NL starter Roy Halladay only has one start at Chase Field, getting the win going six innings while giving up three runs (4.50 ERA) and striking out four. Tim Lincecum has the most wins (3), Kevin Correia has the most losses (6) and strikeouts (48), and Heath Bell has the most holds (4).
The worst pitcher at Chase Field is Atlanta closer Craig Kimbrel (13.50 ERA with one loss and one blown save), followed by Cliff Lee (5.14 ERA in seven innings) and Jair Jurrjens (5.09 ERA in three games).
- AMERICAN LEAGUE ALL-STARS
The American League hitters provide fewer numbers. In fact, five players — Jacoby Ellsbury, Howie Kendrick, Jhonny Peralta, Matt Wieters, and starting catcher Alex Avila have never played at Chase Field.
Nevertheless, among those that have walked out onto Chase Field, Josh Hamilton has the best batting average, hitting 0.429 with two home runs and three RBIs in seven at-bats (three games). Final vote-winner Paul Konerko is second with a 0.409 batting average. In 22 at-bats over nine games, Konerko has five home runs and seven RBIs, scoring seven runs himself. Third is Miguel Cabrera (0.393 batting average).
The AL player with the most at bats at Chase Field is former D’back Quentin, who in 209 at-bats is batting 0.287 with eight homers and 44 RBIs (the latter is the most for any AL player). Starting third-basemen Adrian Beltre has the most at-bats (193) for any AL player never affiliated with Arizona, going 0.275 with ten home runs and 29 RBIs.
The worst batting average at Chase is Matt Joyce, who in six at-bats is batting 0.167. He does have one home run, but that is his only hit. He is followed by Michael Cuddyer (0.190 in 21 at-bats) and Kevin Youkilis (0.222 in nine at-bats). Robinson Cano has the fourth-worst batting average in Phoenix, going 0.250. Ironically, the 2011 Home Run Derby champion also has zero career home runs at Chase Field. He joins Youkilis, Michael Young and David Ortiz as the only AL-players to not hit a home run at Chase Field.
Here are the stats for the AL-starters, again in batting order:
- Curtis Granderson (Yankees, CF) - 0.273; one HR; three RBIs in 22 at-bats
- Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians, SS) - 0.385; one HR; three RBIs in 13 at-bats
- Adrian Gonzalez (Red Sox, 1B) - 0.314; 13 HRs; 37 RBIs in 169 at-bats
- Jose Bautista (Blue Jays, RF) - 0.265; two HRs; six RBIs in 34 at-bats
- Josh Hamilton (Rangers, LF) – 0.429; two HRs; three RBIs in seven at-bats
- Adrian Beltre (Rangers, 3B) - 0.275; ten HRs; 29 RBIs in 193 at-bats
- David Ortiz (Red Sox, DH) - 0.286; zero HRs; zero RBIs in seven at-bats
- Robinson Cano (Yankees, 2B) - 0.250; zero HRs; one RBI in 12 at-bats
- Alex Avila (Tigers, C) - never played at Chase Field
Pitching stats are scarce for the AL pitchers, as only six — Josh Beckett, Jered Weaver, David Robertson, Jose Valverde, Chris Perez, and C.J. Wilson — have actually pitched at Chase Field. Three of those six players (Beckett, Valverde, and Perez) pitched in the National League at one time.
Obviously former Diamondback Valverde will have the most games played (138), most wins (seven), most losses (nine), and most saves (51). Perez and Wilson are the only AL pitchers with a save (one) at Chase Field, while Valverde [during his days as a set-up man] is the only pitcher with any holds (nine).
Wilson has the best ERA (0.00), which was accomplished in 2.1 innings while allowing two hits. Beckett has four career starts at Chase Field, going 1-2 in those games while accumulating an AL-worst 5.16 ERA. The AL starter Jered Weaver has only one appearance, going six innings and giving up three runs (4.50 ERA) on four hits (0.182 batting average against) while picking up the win.
So, there you have it! The stats for the players in the 2011 MLB All-Star Game. Happy now?
First-Pitch Swinging: Best First-Pitch Hitters in MLB (2010)
It is a bit delayed as I meant to post this before the season got underway. But, better late than never.
Continuing the theme of odd-statistics in the stat-driven sport of baseball, I decided to look at the best hitters of 0-0 counts. When one thinks of current players that are swinging away at first pitches, one person that tends to jump out if Vlad Guerrero. While he is top ten, he is not the best first-pitch hitter in baseball…at least in 2010. So let’s take a look and found out which players waste little time getting to work.
The stats used again come from ESPN.com, which does a good job of providing a ton of situational stats by teams, thereby making it easier to acquire and sort. Like the Uncle Popov Top 23 for college football, I made up my own formula and it is probably flawed. But, it gave me a method to decipher who was the best hitter on an 0-0 count. Similar to how I created a “qualified” category for the road-home splits, I took the top ten players by at-bats (for an 0-0 count) per team and weeded out the remainder. Then, I grouped each of the First-Pitch qualifiers by league -AL and NL.
From here, I did two rankings on a number of statistical categories, including hits, runs, HRs, RBIs, batting average, OPS, etc. The first ranking is the player’s statistical rank among all of his AL or NL peers (depending on the league). The second ranking is the player’s statistical rank among his (qualified) teammates. For example, Ichiro Suzuki ranks 15th in the AL for first-pitch doubles, but first in that category among the Seattle Mariners.
Once I had the ranks for each, I average each ranking (league and team) and then added the two numbers to get a “ranking score.” The lower the ranking, the better the first-pitch hitter. Well, roughly.
One thing to keep in mind — the stats collecting are from when players put the 0-0 pitch in play. Obviously every batter faces an 0-0 pitch. However, statistics are calculated based on that pitch being put into play. As you will see below, the most at-bats where a first-pitch was put into play comes from Vernon Wells, who in total had 590 at-bats; this means that he had an 0-0 count 590 times. However, of those 590 first pitches Wells put 133 into play (22.5 percent of the time). The statistics seen here come from the times when the ball is put into play, which in the case of Wells was 22.5 percent of the time. Make sense? If not, read it again!
Now, here are the best first-pitch hitters by league:
AMERICAN LEAGUE
5. Miguel Cabrera (Detroit Tigers) – 19.7
4. Delmon Young (Minnesota Twins) – 19.5
3. Justin Morneau (Minnesota Twins) – 16.0
2. Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay Rays) – 14.8
1. Nelson Cruz (Texas Rangers) – 9.6
- It makes sense that a Ranger is tops here as Texas had the best average rank (3.125) of any team in the Majors, with three Rangers in the top ten (the other two are Vladimir Guerrero and Josh Hamilton). In other words, they are free-swinging in DFW! Cruz batted 0.484 with six homers, 20 RBIs, nine doubles and even one triple. He put the first pitch into play 15.5 percent of the time and 27.7 percent of his home runs occurred on the first pitch; he hit more home runs on the first pitch than any other count. Swing away, Cruz; swing away.
NATIONAL LEAGUE
5. Geovany Soto (Chicago Cubs) – 20.5
4. Kelly Johnson (Arizona Diamondbacks) – 19.8
3. Rickie Weeks (Milwaukee Brewers) – 17.3
2. Corey Hart (Milwaukee Brewers) - 16.5
1. Colby Rasmus (St. Louis Cardinals) – 11.2
- Rasmus batted a crazy 0.477 on the first pitch, which ranked 11th among National League batters. He also jacked eight home runs and drove in 19 runs off the 0-0 pitch, the former being tied for second in the National League. Rasmus put 14 percent of first pitches into play. His eight first-pitch home runs accounted for 34.8 percent of all of his home runs (like Cruz, a plurality of his home runs occurred on the first pitch). All of this despite the fact that the Cardinals are middle-of-the-pack in the NL in terms of 0-0 pitches.
And now, for some other stats related to first-pitch situations.
MOST FIRST-PITCH AT-BATS (putting ball in play):
- American League: Vernon Wells (TOR) – 133 at-bats
- National League: Carlos Lee (HOU) and Pablo Sandoval (SF) - 100 at-bats
MOST FIRST-PITCH DOUBLES:
- American League: Miguel Cabrera (DET) – 12 doubles
- National League: Marlon Byrd (CHC) - 13 doubles
MOST FIRST-PITCH TRIPLES:
- American League: Carl Crawford (TB) – four triples
- National League: Dexter Fowler (COL) - four triples
MOST FIRST-PITCH HOME RUNS:
- American League: Vladimir Guerrero (TEX) – 10 home runs
- National League: Carlos Gonzalez (COL) - 9 home runs
MOST FIRST-PITCH RBIs:
- American League: Vladimir Guerrero (TEX) – 39 RBIs
- National League: Corey Hart (MIL) - 28 RBIs
BEST FIRST-PITCH BATTING AVERAGE:
- American League: Jim Thome (MIN) – 0.577
- National League: Kelly Johnson (ARZ) - 0.551
BEST FIRST-PITCH SLUGGING PERCENTAGE:
- American League: Jim Thome (MIN) – 1.500
- National League: Geovany Soto (CHC) - 1.156
FIRST-PITCH TEAM BATTING AVERAGES (American League):
- Minnesota Twins – 0.375
- Baltimore Orioles – 0.365
- Texas Rangers – 0.353
- Tampa Bay Rays – 0.344
- Boston Red Sox – 0.343
- Cleveland Indians – 0.341
- Oakland Athletics – 0.336
- Detroit Tigers – 0.334
- New York Yankees – 0.320
- Toronto Blue Jays – 0.313
- Kansas City Royals – 0.310
- Seattle Mariners – 0.305
- Los Angeles Angels – 0.294
- Chicago White Sox – 0.293
FIRST-PITCH TEAM BATTING AVERAGES (National League):
- Colorado Rockies - 0.385
- San Diego Padres – 0.366
- Arizona Diamondbacks – 0.360
- Florida Marlins - 0.354
- Milwaukee Brewers – 0.349
- New York Mets – 0.345
- Chicago Cubs – 0.338
- Pittsburgh Pirates – 0.338
- San Francisco Giants – 0.334
- Cincinnati Reds – 0.333
- Los Angeles Dodgers – 0.331
- St. Louis Cardinals – 0.320
- Washington Nationals – 0.320
- Atlanta Braves – 0.315
- Philadelphia Phillies – 0.308
- Houston Astros – 0.295
———-FILES———-
~~NOTE: the above files are in .docx format and may not open in older versions of Microsoft Word. All photos taken from Daylife, with both coming via Getty Images…big ups!~~
Home Away from Home: Best Road Performances in Baseball for 2010 (MLB)
With Opening Day 2011 rapidly approaching, I decided to keep the statistical review of the 2010 season in Major League Baseball going. Today, I want to look at the home/away splits for both leagues. I am primarily interested in how well a player hits away from his home park.
To do this, I took the top ten players (in terms of number of at-bats) for every team for both home games and away games. This break meant that road at-bats ranged from 344 (Ichiro Suzuki) to 94 (Jed Lowrie). Because there was such a great disparity, I opted to then take that list and for each league and for each split stat I made a cut — top 100 at-bats (per split stat) for the AL and top 110 for NL — that put the minimum at-bats around 175 for home games and 160 for away games.
Making the cut did alter the original list somewhat. For example, using the top 10 per team, John Jaso of the Tampa Bay Rays had the greatest positive batting average disparity between away and home games (+ 0.102). However, when I used a “qualifying” cut-off, the leader for said stat becomes Erick Aybar of the Los Angeles Angels (+ 0.073), who would have been number four in the other list.
All stats were taken from MLB.com and then placed into an Excel spreadsheet. I then subtracted the away numbers from the home numbers to get the disparity between the two split stats. Any player with a positive number demonstrates a better performance on the road than at home; any player with a negative number demonstrates a poorer performance on the road than at home.
And now…the numbers.
AMERICAN LEAGUE
HIGHER AWAY BATTING AVERAGE
5. Matt LaPorta (Cleveland): +0.045
4. Mark Ellis (Oakland): +0.053
3. Juan Rivera (Los Angeles): +0.060
2. Torii Hunter (Los Angeles): +0.061
1. Erick Aybar (Los Angeles): +0.073
- Away batting average: 0.287
- Home batting average: 0.214
- Best Division Park: Oakland Coliseum (0.341)
- Best Non-Division Park: Dodgers Stadium (0.400)
MORE AWAY HOME RUNS
3t. Joe Mauer (Minnesota): +7
3t. Juan Rivera (Los Angeles): +7
3t. Torii Hunter (Los Angeles): +7
2. Daric Barton (Oakland): +8
1. Delmon Young (Minnesota): +9
- Home runs hit on the road: 15
- Home runs hit at home: 6
- Best Division Park: Kauffman Stadium and U.S. Cellular Field (2)
- Best Non-Division Park: Angel Stadium, Camden Yards, and Rogers Center (2)
MORE AWAY RBIs
5. Evan Longoria (Tampa Bay): +18
4. Mark Ellis (Oakland): +19
3. Juan Rivera (Los Angeles): +20
2. B.J. Upton (Tampa Bay): +22
1. Ben Zobrist (Tampa Bay): +33
- Runs batted in on the road: 54
- Runs batted in at home: 21
- Best Division Park: Fenway Park (10)
- Best Non-Division Park: Angel Stadium (5)
MORE AWAY WALKS DRAWN
3t. Jorge Posada (New York): +9
3t. Scott Podsednik (Kansas City): +9
3t. Torii Hunter (Los Angeles): +9
2. Rajai Davis (Oakland): +12
1. Johnny Damon (Detroit): +13
- Walks drawn on the road: 41
- Walks drawn at home: 28
- Best Division Park: Progressive Field (8)
- Best Non-Division Park: Rangers Ballpark (6)
MORE AWAY BASES STOLEN
5t. Franklin Gutierrez (Seattle): +7
5t. Brett Gardner (New York): +7
4. Johnny Damon (Detroit): +9
3. Rajai Davis (Oakland): +10
2. Carl Crawford (Tampa Bay): +13
1. Alex Rios (Chicago): +14
- Bases stolen on the road: 24
- Bases stolen at home: 10
- Best Division Park: Progressive Field (4)
- Best Non-Division Park: Rangers Ballpark (4)
———-
LOWER AWAY BATTING AVERAGE
5. Brandon Inge (Detroit): -0.082
4. Jorge Posada (New York): -0.083
3. Vernon Wells (Toronto): -0.096
2. Nelson Cruz (Texas): -0.104
1. Luke Scott (Baltimore): -0.110
FEWER AWAY HOME RUNS
5t. Michael Young (Texas): -11
5t. Vernon Wells (Toronto): -11
5t. Luke Scott (Baltimore): -11
3t. Jose Bautista (Toronto): -12
3t. Carlos Quentin (Chicago): -12
1t. Josh Hamilton (Texas): -14
1t. Paul Konerko (Chicago): -14
FEWER AWAY RBIs
5t. Mark Teixeria (New York): -20
5t. Luke Scott (Baltimore): -20
4. Kurt Suzuki (Oakland): -21
3. Vernon Wells (Toronto): -24
1t. Robinson Cano (New York): -25
1t. Miguel Tejada (Baltimore): -25
FEWER AWAY WALKS DRAWN
4t. Aaron Hill (Toronto): -13
4t. Mark Teixeria (New York): -13
3. Paul Konerko (Chicago): -14
2. Miguel Cabrera (Detroit): -15
1. Ian Kinsler (Texas): -16
FEWER AWAY BASES STOLEN
3t. Ichiro Suzuki (Seattle): -6
3t. Juan Pierre (Chicago): -6
3t. Bobby Abreu (Los Angeles): -6
2. Brennan Boesch (Detroit): -7
1. B.J. Upton (Tampa Bay): -8
NATIONAL LEAGUE
HIGHER AWAY BATTING AVERAGE
5. Carlos Ruiz (Philadelphia): +0.053
4. David Eckstein (San Diego): +0.056
3. Colby Rasmus (St. Louis): +0.058
2. Ryan Braun (Milwaukee): +0.070
1. Buster Posey (San Francisco): +0.093
- Away batting average: 0.351
- Home batting average: 0.258
- Best Division Park: Chase Field (.440)
- Best Non-Division Park: Miller Park (.600)
MORE AWAY HOME RUNS
5t. Omar Infante (Atlanta): +6
5t. Ian Stewart (Colorado): +6
5t. Buster Posey (San Francisco): +6
3t. Martin Prado (Atlanta): +7
3t. Ryan Zimmerman (Washington): +7
2. Albert Pujols (St. Louis): +8
1. Adrian Gonzalez (San Diego): +9
- Home runs hit on the road: 20
- Home runs hit at home: 11
- Best Division Park: Chase Field and Coors Field (3)
- Best Non-Division Park: Citizens Bank Park (3)
MORE AWAY RBIs
4t. Brian McCann (Atlanta): +13
4t. Juan Uribe (San Francisco): +13
4t. Matt Kemp (Los Angeles): +13
4t. Justin Upton (Arizona): +13
3. Casey Blake (Los Angeles): +14
2. Will Venable (San Diego): +15
1. Adrian Gonzalez (San Diego): +17
- Runs batted in on the road: 59
- Runs batted in at home: 42
- Best Division Park: Coors Field (8)
- Best Non-Division Park: Citizens Bank Park (6)
MORE AWAY WALKS DRAWN
5t. Jonny Gomes (Cincinnati): +9
5t. Alfonso Soriano (Chicago): +9
5t. Joey Votto (Cincinnati): +9
3t. Martin Prado (Atlanta): +10
3t. Alcides Escobar (Milwaukee): +10
2. Jimmy Rollins (Philadelphia): +12
1. Jason Heyward (Atlanta): +13
- Walks drawn on the road: 52
- Walks drawn at home: 39
- Best Division Park: Sun Life Stadium (10)
- Best Non-Division Park: PNC Park (5)
MORE AWAY BASES STOLEN
5. Five tied with +5
4. Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado): +6
3. Joey Votto (Cincinnati): +8
2. Justin Upton (Arizona): +8
1. Nyjer Morgan (Washington): +10
- Bases stolen on the road: 22
- Bases stolen at home: 12
- Best Division Park: Sun Life Stadium (3)
- Best Non-Division Park: Great American (3)
———-
LOWER AWAY BATTING AVERAGE
5. Cody Ross (Florida): -0.088
4. Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado): -0.091
3. Dexter Fowler (Colorado): -0.102
2. Miguel Olivo (Colorado): -0.107
1. Pablo Sandoval (San Francisco): -0.122
FEWER AWAY HOME RUNS
5. Jayson Werth (Philadelphia ): -9
4. Mark Reynolds (Arizona): -10
3. Jay Bruce (Cincinnati): -13
2. Chris Young (Arizona): -13
1. Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado): -18
FEWER AWAY RBIs
4t. Troy Tulowitzki (Colorado): -23
4t. Aramis Ramirez (Chicago): -23
3. Kelly Johnson (Arizona): -25
2. Miguel Olivo (Colorado): -26
1. Carlos Gonzalez (Colorado): -35
FEWER AWAY WALKS DRAWN
4t. Casey Blake (Los Angeles): -14
4t. Stephen Drew (Arizona): -14
3. Starlin Castro (Chicago): -15
2. David Wright (New York): -21
1. Matt Holliday (St. Louis): -23
FEWER AWAY BASES STOLEN
5t. Orlando Cabrera (Cincinnati): -5
5t. Matt Kemp (Los Angeles): -5
3t. Chris Young (Arizona): -6
3t. Andres Torres (San Francisco): -6
2. Angel Pagan (New York): -7
1. Albert Pujols (St. Louis): -10
Seeding Mismatches for the 2011 NCAA Tournament
Just as I did last year, I am going to examine the seeding mismatch relative to the RPI ratings. Now, through various discussions — both here (via comments) and elsewhere — it has become understood and agreed that RPI is not the ultimate measure for tournament selection. While true, should it not at least count towards seeding? Even if it is the Sagarin Index, something needs to be used to place logic behind the seedings (and, I’d be willing to look at Sagarin mismatches if I have the time).
Still, while it is all too easy to point to Utah State and say that they lost and did not deserve a higher seeding, their placement as a 12 also gave them a tougher opening round matchup.
Here are the differences between RPI-predicted seeding and actual seeding. A zero means the team was appropriately seeded; positive numbers mean the team was over-seeded (seeded higher than expected); negative numbers mean the team was under-seeded (seeded lower than expected).
| Team | Predicted | Actual | Seed Dif |
| Ohio State | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Kansas | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pittsburgh | 3 | 1 | 2 |
| Duke | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| San Diego State | 1 | 2 | -1 |
| Florida | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Notre Dame | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| North Carolina | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Syracuse | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Purdue | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| BYU | 2 | 3 | -1 |
| UConn | 4 | 3 | 1 |
| Texas | 3 | 4 | -1 |
| Wisconsin | 4 | 4 | 0 |
| Louisville | 5 | 4 | 1 |
| Kentucky | 2 | 4 | -2 |
| West Virginia | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Vanderbilt | 7 | 5 | 2 |
| Kansas State | 6 | 5 | 1 |
| Arizona | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Cincinnati | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| St. John’s | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Georgetown | 4 | 6 | -2 |
| Xavier | 6 | 6 | 0 |
| Washington | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Texas A&M | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| UCLA | 11 | 7 | 4 |
| Temple | 8 | 7 | 1 |
| Michigan | 12 | 8 | 4 |
| Butler | 9 | 8 | 1 |
| UNLV | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| George Mason | 7 | 8 | -1 |
| Villanova | 10 | 9 | 1 |
| Illinois | 11 | 9 | 2 |
| Old Dominion | 5 | 9 | -4 |
| Tennessee | 9 | 9 | 0 |
| Penn State | 10 | 10 | 0 |
| Michigan State | 11 | 10 | 1 |
| Florida State | 13 | 10 | 3 |
| Georgia | 11 | 10 | 1 |
| Marquette | 13 | 11 | 2 |
| USC | 14 | 11 | 3 |
| Gonzaga | 13 | 11 | 2 |
| Missouri | 9 | 11 | -2 |
| Virginia Commonwealth | 12 | 11 | 1 |
| UAB | 8 | 12 | -4 |
| Memphis | 7 | 12 | -5 |
| Utah State | 4 | 12 | -8 |
| Richmond | 10 | 13 | -3 |
| Clemson | 13 | 12 | 1 |
| Princeton | 10 | 13 | -3 |
| Morehead State | 14 | 13 | 1 |
| Belmont | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| Oakland | 12 | 13 | -1 |
| Bucknell | 14 | 14 | 0 |
| Wofford | 15 | 14 | 1 |
| St. Peter’s | 16 | 14 | 2 |
| Indiana State | 15 | 14 | 1 |
| Long Island University | 14 | 15 | -1 |
| Akron | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| UC Santa Barbara | 17 | 15 | 2 |
| Northern Colorado | 15 | 15 | 0 |
| Hampton | 16 | 16 | 0 |
| UNC Asheville | 17 | 17 | 0 |
| Boston University | 16 | 16 | 0 |
| Arkansas-Little Rock | 17 | 17 | 0 |
| Texas-San Antonio | 16 | 17 | -1 |
| Alabama State | 17 | 17 | 0 |
Here is the breakdown by conference:
- ACC: +1
- Atlantic Sun: -1
- Big 12: -0.2
- Big East: +1.1
- Big Sky: 0
- Big South: 0
- Big Ten: +1
- Big West: +2
- Colonial: -1.33
- Conference USA: -4.5
- Horizon: +1
- Ivy League: -3
- MAAC: +2
- MEAC: 0
- Mid-American: 0
- Missouri Valley: +1
- Mountain West: -1
- Northeast: -1
- Ohio Valley: +1
- Pac-10: +1.8
- Patriot: 0
- SEC: +0.2
- Southland: -1
- Summit: -1
- Sun Belt: 0
- SWAC: 0
- WAC: -8
- West Coast: +2
~Quick Explanation: Predicted seeds are based on RPI order only of tournament teams. Teams with an RPI 1-4 would be the top four seeds, meaning in the end the last seeds should have an RPI between 65-68. However, because the selections have automatic qualifiers with RPIs greater than 68, the tournament teams are ordered based off of their RPI — first is Kansas (RPI 1) and last is UNC Asheville (RPI 322).
For each set of four, there is a predicted seeding — 1-4 are predicted to receive the number 1 seeds; 5-8 are predicted to receive the number 2 seeds; 9-12 are predicted to receive the number 3 seeds; etc. That predicted seed is subtracted from the actual seed to get the seed difference in order to determine mismatch.
For teams 65-68, those teams are given a predicted seed of 17. Seed 17 goes to the AQ teams that participate in the “First Four” (i.e., not the last four at-large teams in). Thus, the teams predicted to participate in the “play-in” game are UNC Asheville, UC Santa Barbara, Alabama State, and Arkansas-Little Rock. Of those that had an actual “17-seed,” three of the four were involved in the “First Four” — only UC Santa Barbara was seeded higher, giving way to Texas-San Antonio.
Most Clutch Hitters During the First Half of the 2010 MLB Season
Okay, I am bored. Let’s look at stats!
The All-Star Farce wrapped up last night and I watched all of one inning. That makes two years in a row that I actually watched any part of baseball’s All-Star Game, although I still have not watched a complete game since 2002.
I am not going to bitch and moan about the game and how players are selected. It is a beauty contest and name recognition that “excites” the fans during the doldrums of the sports calendar. But, I would like to look at some of the best players of the first “half” of the MLB season. In particular, I want to look at clutch players.
Anyone with a computer can go look up who is leading the league in homers or batting average (or who is turning into Richie Sexson). But it takes someone with free time on their hands to discover who the clutch All-Stars are. And we have done that here at Uncle Popov. So…
BEST LATE INNING HITTERS (minimum 25 at bats)
- Nick Markakis (0.556 OBP; 3 RBIs; 12 BB; 10 Ks)
- Ichiro Suzuki (0.537 OBP; 0.457 Batting Average; 3 RBIs; 6 BB; 5 Ks)
- Josh Hamilton (0.500 OBP; 3 HRs; 9 RBIs; 6 BB; 6 Ks)
- Albert Pujols (0.500 OBP; 2 HRs; 4 RBIs; 10 BB; 7 Ks)
- Michael Young (0.489 OBP; 9 runs scored; 9 BB; 8 Ks)
This scenario is derived from games that are close in the late innings. The players listed above are ranked based on on-base percentage due to the significance of drawing walks late in games, especially against tough relievers. All are familiar names, although Nick Markakis topping the list is a surprise (0.394 batting average places him seventh). Considered how some people criticized Ichiro for not being clutch (see comments section of link), the fact that he is second here (and first in batting average) should put that criticism to rest (it won’t, but it should).
Josh Hamilton is probably the most clutch hitter so far in 2010. He is fourth in batting average, tied for second in home runs (Matt Holliday, Matt Kemp, Paul Konerko, and Ryan Doumit lead with four home runs each) and RBIs, and is tied with Jose Lopez for first in hits (16).
BEST WITH RUNNERS IN SCORING POSITION (minimum 50 at bats)
- Albert Pujols (0.530 OBP; 6 HRs; 42 RBIs; 39 runs scores; 33 BBs; 7 Ks)
- Adrian Gonzalez (0.527 OBP; 3 HRs; 34 RBIs; 33 runs scored; 23 BBs; 10 Ks)
- Ryan Ludwick (0.500 OBP; 5 HRs; 34 RBIs; 0.446 batting average; 8 BBs; 12 Ks)
- Chipper Jones (0.500 OBP; 2 HRs; 28 RBIs; 26 BBs; 14 Ks)
- Elvis Andrus (0.494 OBP; 24 RBIs; 47 runs scored; 16 BBs; 11 Ks)
Given the role of hitters batting third, fourth, fifth and sixth to drive in runs, it is not surprising to see Pujols and Gonzalez on this list; they usually have the table set for them. However, Andrus is in at five and he is primarily the Rangers’ leadoff hitter. Additionally, players like Carlos Quentin (0.474 OBP with RISP) are in the top 10 despite batting 0.244 on the season! [Apparently Quentin needs runners on base as he is batting just 0.189 with the bases empty]. Quentin, along with the Reds’ Jonny Gomes, lead the league with eight home runs with RISP.
In terms of the top 5, Pujols is indeed a machine, making his second appearance in these listings. He is dangerous enough to lead all batters with runners in scoring position in walks. Seven strikeouts in 79 at bats is also impressive.
BEST HITTERS AFTER FALLING BEHIND IN COUNT (minimum 70 at bats)
- Adrian Beltre (0.325 batting average; 2 HRs; 14 RBIs; 32 Ks)
- Placido Polanco (0.323 batting average; 1 HR; 7 RBIs; 15 Ks)
- Dustin Pedroia (0.321 batting average; 4 HRs; 17 RBIs; 13 Ks)
- James Loney (0.314 batting average; 2 HRs; 11 RBIs; 30 Ks)
- Marlon Byrd (0.311 batting average; 3 HRs; 14 RBIs; 31 Ks)
This was a tough stat to grab. MLB’s website was the source and while I would have liked to look at on-base percentage rather than batting average, for some reason the stats did not include walks. It did give OBP but because I could not determine walks I chose to use batting average instead. For the record, Juan Pierre (0.336) has the best OBP after falling behind, followed by Byrd (0.329), Beltre (0.328), Pedroia (0.327), and Polanco (0.323).
It is tough to say what really makes a player a good hitter after falling behind in the count. Other than Polanco, there is nothing in these players’ career stats that suggest they are consistently good hitters after falling behind. Jose Guillen has eight home runs, but he also has 40 strikeouts.
Of the list, I would say Pedroia has been the best after falling behind. That he has struck out only 13 times in 106 at bats is a testament to his ability (David Eckstein has the fewest strikeouts with nine in 122 at bats). If I had to choose someone not on this list it would be Vladimir Guerrero, who has a 0.300 batting average, five home runs, 24 RBIs, and 19 strikeouts in 110 at bats.
BEST HITTER WITH TWO OUTS (minimum 50 at bats)
- Joey Votto (0.484 OBP; 11 HRs; 26 RBIs; 0.396 batting average; 17 BBs; 24 Ks)
- Albert Pujols (0.481 OBP; 11 HRs; 29 RBIs; 36 BBs; 14 Ks)
- Geovany Soto (0.479 OBP; 2 HRs; 9 RBIs; 20 BBs; 6 Ks)
- Ian Kinsler (0.471 OBP; 3 HRs; 14 RBIs; 17 BBs; 12 Ks)
- Billy Butler (0.462 OBP; 4 HRs; 17 RBIs; 21 BBs; 20 Ks)
Another interesting collection of players. Soto makes it in just barely above the at-bat minimum and he is rebounding from an abysmal 2009 season. But overall he is still behind his 2008 numbers. Most of the country has probably not heard much about Billy Butler, but he is quietly putting together a nice season in Kansas City. The other three are all-stars.
Albert Pujols joins the list again, but it is Joey Votto that takes this category. Votto leads not only the OBP category, but he leads all hitters in average and is tied with Pujols in HRs. Pujols does have Votto beat in walks drawn and he has fewer strikeouts, but it is clutch hitting like this that make MVP calls for Votto not that far fetched, especially given how well the Reds have played this year.
And now, just to round things out, here are the most clutch starting pitchers from the first half of the 2010 season.
BEST PITCHERS AFTER FALLING BEHIND IN THE COUNT (minimum 15 innings pitched)
- Vincente Padilla (1.3 K/BB Ratio; 13 Ks; 14 hits; 5.06 ERA; 16 IPs)
- Zack Greinke (0.955 K/BB Ratio; 21 Ks; 37 hits; 2.65 ERA; 37.1 IP)
- Roy Halladay (0.947 K/BB Ratio; 18 Ks; 46 hits; 4.03 ERA; 29 IP)
- Jered Weaver (0.857 K/BB Ratio; 24 Ks; 32 hits; 5.10 ERA; 30 IP)
- Cliff Lee (0.833 K/BB Ratio; 5 Ks; 21 hits; 3.48 ERA; 20.2 IP)
If you look at the ERA of pitchers in this situation, you would get pitchers like Mike Pelfrey (not bad), Josh Johnson (he’s good) and Tom Gorzelanny (who?). So, I looked at strikeout-to-walk ratio because it shows if the pitcher lost the hitter to a walk or was able to bounce back.
Four of the top five are not surprising — Greinke, Halladay, Weaver, and Lee are all elite pitchers. But, Padilla? The Dodgers’ opening day starter knows how to get out of a jam. But of these five, I will give the nod to the Royals ace. While Greinke does seem to get himself behind in the count often (37.1 IP means it happens too often), he sports a very solid ERA in those situations and limits the damage.
So, to conclude, overall Albert Pujols is the most clutch hitter of the first half, with a honorable mention to Zack Greinke as the most clutch pitcher of the first half (cannot give it to him outright because I only examine one stat). By the way, when the two met Pujols was 0-3 with a walk. I’d give the edge to Greinke.
