Hijacking the Heisman: Who Truly Deserves the Stiff-Arm?
Lots of debate going on about which player most deserves perhaps the most overrated trophy in sports — the Heisman Trophy.
I write “overrated” because for “most outstanding player,” it almost always goes to a player on the top couple of teams. Certainly those players are “outstanding,” but “outstanding” is conflated with “best team” and there are plenty of players who are outstanding, but on weak teams. It is through no fault of their own that they are on poor teams.
Furthermore, players on good teams are often overlooked as well. While Mark Ingram was certainly deserving of his Heisman trophy, one has to wonder if Stanford being 8-4 hurt Toby Gerhart’s chances.
Nevertheless, this year the debate seems to be between Trent Richardson and Robert Griffin III. Like in 2009, Richardson’s Alabama team is headed to the BCS Game, while RG3 is on a team that has multiple losses (three). And yet, from the pundits, it appears that the talented Baylor quarterback is going to win the trophy.
That stated, those supporting Richardson openly question the level of competition that Griffin III has faced this season. And at the surface, that is a worthwhile question. Here is a table comparing four offensive finalists and the level of competition in terms of total yards allowed.
|
BALL |
GRIFFIN |
LUCK |
RICHARDSON |
| UNLV (106) | TCU (32) | SJSU (93) | Kent (19) |
| OreSt (83) | FCS (X) | Duke (92) | PSU (10) |
| NIU (86) | Rice (111) | Ariz. (110) | Ntexas (97) |
| FCS (X) | K-State (74) | UCLA (91) | Ark. (51) |
| Neb. (36) | IowaSt. (98) | Colo. (103) | UF (9) |
| Ind. (109) | TAMU (66) | WSU (81) | Vandy (20) |
| MichSt (5) | OkState (107) | Wash (94) | Miss. (88) |
| OSU (24) | Missou (61) | SoCal (54) | Tenn (28) |
| Pur (69) | Kan (120) | OreSt (83) | LSU (2) |
| Minn (77) | OU (62) | Ore (60) | MSU (43) |
| Illi. (7) | TxTech (115) | Cal (26) | FCS (X) |
| PSU (10) | Tex. (14) | ND (34) | Aub. (78) |
And here is a look at the defenses faced and their ranked relative to the position of the Heisman candidate (passing defense for Griffin III and Luck; rushing defense for Ball and Richardson).
|
BALL |
GRIFFIN |
LUCK |
RICHARDSON |
| UNLV (98) | TCU (56) | SJSU (57) | Kent (34) |
| OreSt (101) | FCS (X) | Duke (85) | PSU (48) |
| NIU (83) | Rice (111) | Ariz. (119) | Ntexas (72) |
| FCS (X) | K-State (104) | UCLA (68) | Ark. (79) |
| Neb. (66) | IowaSt. (72) | Colo. (97) | UF (40) |
| Ind. (118) | TAMU (113) | WSU (95) | Vandy (27) |
| MichSt (12) | OkState (102) | Wash (116) | Miss. (111) |
| OSU (52) | Missou (91) | SoCal (101) | Tenn (69) |
| Pur (91) | Kan (108) | OreSt (49) | LSU (3) |
| Minn (93) | OU (83) | Ore (82) | MSU (65) |
| Illi. (42) | TxTech (65) | Cal (43) | FCS (X) |
| PSU (48) | Tex. (47) | ND (34) | Aub. (99) |
[NOTE: Montee Ball faced Michigan State twice, but I only listed it once in the above tables.]
Now…that nice. But, it does not tell you that much. Why? Because just like a winning percentage can lie because of a soft (or difficult) schedule, so too can offensive and defensive yards. For example, are the defenses in the Big 12 giving up a lot of yards because they are poor…or because those D’s face high-octane offenses? Subsequently, are SEC defenses really that good, or are those teams facing anemic offenses?
Thus, it is best to see how each of the players fare relative to how other teams have fared against the same defenses. In other words, how does Richardson’s stats measure up to how other teams performed against Alabama’s opponents; and how does Griffin stack up against the other teams that played Baylor’s opponents.
In order to do this properly, I looked at how each player fared in stats relative to their position. For the quarterbacks, I looked at passer efficiency ratings while with the running backs I looked at rushing yards gained. With the latter, to account for rushing yards gained by other players on the team, I took the players percentage of rushing yards gained in a given game and multiplied it the average a defense allows. In other words, Richardson gained only 47 percent of Alabama’s 389 rushing yards against Mississippi. So, I multiplied 47 by the Rebels’ average rushing yards allowed (224.9) in order to get a more comparable number (105.7).
To make more sense of the numbers, a ratio was used comparing yards earned to yards given up. Any number over 1 means the player (or team) outgained the average, while a number less than 1 means the player (or team) underachieved. Finally, I compared that number with a similar ratio looking at how likely an opponent was to over/underachieve against a given defense. In other words, were teams more likely to have bigger-than-normal games against Indiana?
So, here we go…in alphabetical order.
MONTEE BALL (RB-Wisconsin)
| Team | Yards | BALL | Score |
| UNLV |
63 |
1.241 |
1.008 |
| Oregon State |
118 |
1.057 |
0.811 |
| Northern Illinois |
91 |
1.494 |
1.241 |
| South Dakota |
88 |
X |
X |
| Nebraska |
151 |
1.430 |
1.082 |
| Indiana |
142 |
1.363 |
1.571 |
| Michigan State |
115 |
2.109 |
1.073 |
| Ohio State |
85 |
0.625 |
0.426 |
| Purdue |
223 |
1.961 |
1.815 |
| Minnesota |
166 |
1.518 |
1.208 |
| Illinois |
224 |
1.470 |
0.875 |
| Penn State |
156 |
1.903 |
1.407 |
| Michigan State |
137 |
1.208 |
0.615 |
| AVERAGE |
135.3077 |
1.448082 |
1.09431 |
ROBERT GRIFFIN III (QB-Baylor)
| Team | Rating | GRIFFIN | Score |
| TCU |
158.3 |
1.435 |
1.187 |
| Stephen F. Austin |
158.3 |
X |
X |
| Rice |
148.9 |
1.488 |
1.093 |
| Kansas State |
136.6 |
1.100 |
0.995 |
| Iowa State |
103.8 |
0.662 |
0.741 |
| Texas A&M |
119.8 |
0.954 |
0.881 |
| Oklahoma State |
82.5 |
0.648 |
0.597 |
| Missouri |
122.6 |
0.824 |
0.880 |
| Kansas |
130.2 |
0.975 |
0.911 |
| Oklahoma |
144.9 |
1.040 |
1.040 |
| Texas Tech |
125.6 |
1.123 |
0.913 |
| Texas |
122.3 |
1.068 |
0.886 |
| AVERAGE |
129.4833 |
1.029 |
0.920 |
ANDREW LUCK (QB-Stanford)
| Team | Rating | LUCK | Score |
| San Jose State |
109.6 |
0.721 |
0.814 |
| Duke |
129.5 |
0.928 |
0.931 |
| Arizona |
121 |
0.764 |
0.838 |
| UCLA |
138.7 |
1.027 |
0.985 |
| Colorado |
131.1 |
1.024 |
0.934 |
| Washington State |
119.7 |
0.783 |
0.892 |
| Washington |
130.9 |
0.962 |
0.944 |
| Southern California |
111.5 |
1.207 |
0.812 |
| Oregon State |
105.7 |
0.896 |
0.723 |
| Oregon |
87 |
0.693 |
0.606 |
| California |
101.7 |
0.700 |
0.711 |
| Notre Dame |
115.7 |
0.973 |
0.857 |
| AVERAGE |
116.8417 |
0.890 |
0.837 |
TRENT RICHARDSON (RB-Alabama)
| Team | Yards | RICHARDSON | Score |
| Kent State |
37 |
1.427 |
0.856 |
| Penn State |
111 |
1.413 |
1.045 |
| North Texas |
167 |
2.122 |
1.399 |
| Arkansas |
126 |
1.130 |
0.977 |
| Florida |
181 |
1.708 |
1.164 |
| Vanderbilt |
107 |
1.244 |
0.774 |
| Mississippi |
183 |
1.730 |
1.828 |
| Tennessee |
77 |
0.879 |
0.689 |
| LSU |
89 |
1.123 |
0.451 |
| Mississippi State |
127 |
1.385 |
1.109 |
| Georgia Southern |
175 |
X |
X |
| Auburn |
203 |
1.094 |
1.044 |
|
131.9167 |
1.387 |
1.031 |
What do you see? I see a player being overlooked — Montee Ball! He scored the highest (average of the “score”) and had the highest ratio (yards to defensive yards allowed). However, the latter may be a bit biased towards running backs as there is not a lot of potential for large deviations in passer efficiency ratings. In other words, while a running back can double up the yards a defense normally allows, it is unlikely that a quarterback can double up the passer efficiency defended.
It should be noted that when looking at passing yards compared to defenses, Griffin III has the highest ratio among the four offensive finalist. What does that mean? It means that RG3′s passing numbers are better than what his opponents’ defenses allow; much better. Thus, even if he is facing porous pass defenses, he is shredding them much more than those defenses allow on average.
However, what offsets that is the ratio, where it appears that many teams overachieve against those same defenses. And certainly there is some bias in the ratio as teams may stop throwing late, as well as there may be game plans that favor exploiting an opponent’s run defense (see Stanford v. Washington).
One final note, if we take into account Griffin’s rushing numbers, then he likely moves up ahead of Ball. However, it would also be necessary to look at Ball’s receiving numbers, which while low would still need to be examined in context.
Nevertheless, if we are going to talk about stats and teams faced, then Montee Ball should be your Heisman winner. He is not flashy, which is what unfortunately will doom him this evening, but he has over 1750 rushing yards (over 2000 total yards) and 38 TDs.
Coming into this, I thought that RG3 should win it. However, after doing this, I now believe that Montee Ball should win it. However, it is almost a given that Ball will not win it. Shame.
