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Archive for November, 2011

2011 Uncle Popov Top 23 [Week 11]

I think I got it.  I think I got the polls to proper fluidity that gives respect to current success without sacrificing long-term success.  So, there is a lot of movement this week, but it is where I want it.  I do not anticipate any more changes in the formula.  There is a change in how points are tallied, so there is a big difference in that number.  But, beyond tweaking with the points, the formula is satisfactory.

The big thing is that many teams made moves.  Alabama is STILL number one (consistent success), but LSU is now number two and closing in on Alabama.  Georgia jumps up because of recent success, while Florida is punished for recent “failure.”  The biggest total mover is Arkansas State (up 32 spots to #59), while Fresno State takes the greatest fall (down 23 to #78).

WEEK 11!!!

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Alabama

2.9917

1

2

LSU

2.9583

3

1

3

Oregon

2.9083

4

1

4

Oklahoma

2.8917

6

2

5

Oklahoma State

2.8667

8

3

6

Boise State

2.8667

5

-1

7

Penn State

2.7417

15

8

8

TCU

2.7333

2

-6

9

Virginia Tech

2.7083

13

4

10

Georgia

2.6667

23

13

11

Nebraska

2.6417

17

6

12

Southern California

2.6417

19

7

13

Wisconsin

2.6250

14

1

14

Arkansas

2.6167

18

4

15

Ohio State

2.6083

9

-6

16

Texas

2.6000

12

-4

17

Stanford

2.5417

16

-1

18

South Carolina

2.5250

22

4

19

Michigan State

2.5167

21

2

20

West Virginia

2.4750

20

21

Florida State

2.4667

27

6

22

Clemson

2.4583

32

10

23

Florida

2.4250

7

-16

  • Drop Outs: Auburn (last week 10th; this week 24th); Utah (last week 11th; this week 25th)
  • Newbies: Clemson (last week 32nd; this week 22nd); Florida State (last week 27th; this week 21st)
  • In the Basement (Bottom Five): New Mexico; Tulane; Akron; Memphis; Indiana

2011 Uncle Popov NFL Power Rankings (Week 9)

After looking at it, I was able to get it to where I like it.  Remember, it is a power ranking based on three-plus seasons…so Detroit is still hampered by that 0-16 season, but they are moving up.  I will still keep the 2011 rankings (for now), but I still need to figure out why San Francisco keeps ranking so high (number two).

WEEK 9!!!

POWER RANKING

Rank

Team

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Green Bay Packers

14.329

4

3

2

Pittsburgh Steelers

13.402

1

-1

3

Baltimore Ravens

13.153

3

4

New England Patriots

13.005

2

-2

5

New Orleans Saints

12.592

6

1

6

Atlanta Falcons

12.590

5

-1

7

New York Giants

12.375

7

8

Chicago Bears

11.094

11

3

9

New York Jets

10.967

8

-1

10

Philadelphia Eagles

10.814

9

-1

11

San Francisco 49ers

10.645

17

6

12

Dallas Cowboys

10.144

14

2

13

San Diego Chargers

9.921

10

-3

14

Houston Texans

9.819

15

1

15

Cincinnati Bengals

9.637

19

4

16

Tennessee Titans

9.606

12

-4

17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

9.111

18

1

18

Minnesota Vikings

8.987

16

-2

19

Buffalo Bills

8.450

20

1

20

Detroit Lions

8.225

29

9

21

Carolina Panthers

7.818

22

1

22

Indianapolis Colts

7.401

13

-9

23

Washington Redskins

7.188

24

1

24

Oakland Raiders

7.034

21

-3

25

Denver Broncos

6.607

27

2

26

Arizona Cardinals

6.467

25

-1

27

Miami Dolphins

6.463

23

-4

28

Kansas City Chiefs

6.454

26

-2

29

Cleveland Browns

5.906

30

1

30

Jacksonville Jaguars

5.869

28

-2

31

Seattle Seahawks

5.347

31

32

St. Louis Rams

3.562

32

2011 RANKING

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Green Bay Packers

14.427

1

2

San Francisco 49ers

13.420

2

3

Detroit Lions

12.087

3

4

Cincinnati Bengals

11.562

7

3

5

New York Giants

11.049

9

4

6

Baltimore Ravens

10.950

8

2

7

Buffalo Bills

10.909

4

-3

8

Pittsburgh Steelers

10.614

5

-3

9

New England Patriots

10.452

6

-3

10

Chicago Bears

10.403

13

3

11

New Orleans Saints

10.220

10

-1

12

Houston Texans

10.189

11

-1

13

New York Jets

10.077

17

4

14

Atlanta Falcons

9.983

16

2

15

Dallas Cowboys

9.127

20

5

16

San Diego Chargers

8.926

18

2

17

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

8.859

12

-5

18

Oakland Raiders

8.724

15

-3

19

Kansas City Chiefs

8.564

14

-5

20

Tennessee Titans

8.479

19

-1

21

Philadelphia Eagles

7.634

21

22

Denver Broncos

7.547

26

4

23

Cleveland Browns

7.508

22

-1

24

Washington Redskins

7.210

23

-1

25

Seattle Seahawks

6.628

25

26

Jacksonville Jaguars

6.619

27

1

27

Minnesota Vikings

6.497

28

1

28

Carolina Panthers

6.001

29

1

29

Arizona Cardinals

5.746

30

1

30

Miami Dolphins

4.708

32

2

31

St. Louis Rams

4.560

24

-7

32

Indianapolis Colts

3.611

31

-1


2011 Uncle Popov Top 23 [Week 10]

Well, after the so-called “Game of the Century” I expected LSU to move up AT LEAST to number 2.  Unfortunately, that did not happen and it kind of irks me.  I am going to do some tweaking with the ranking to see if I can add to the fluidity at the top WITHOUT compromising the formula.

This week, recruiting numbers were updated and it gave an added boost to some teams.

WEEK 10!!!

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Alabama

17.584

1

2

TCU

16.162

2

3

LSU

15.419

3

4

Oregon

15.378

5

1

5

Boise State

15.227

4

-1

6

Oklahoma

15.035

6

7

Florida

14.985

7

8

Oklahoma State

14.544

8

9

Ohio State

14.534

9

10

Auburn

13.992

10

11

Utah

13.893

11

12

Texas

13.716

12

13

Virginia Tech

13.587

13

14

Wisconsin

13.453

17

3

15

Penn State

13.387

14

-1

16

Stanford

13.360

16

17

Nebraska

13.287

15

-2

18

Arkansas

13.085

19

1

19

Southern California

13.067

18

-1

20

West Virginia

12.719

20

21

Michigan State

12.639

21

22

South Carolina

12.551

22

23

Georgia

12.548

23

  • Drop Outs: none
  • Newbies: none
  • In the Basement (Bottom Five): New Mexico; Akron; Eastern Michigan; Western Kentucky^; Washington State^

Interpreting the LSU Victory over Alabama: or, How Bitter People Are Towards Defense

Not long after the LSU Tigers knocked off the Alabama Crimson Tide in overtime on 5 November, reactions began to trickle through the Internets!  And oh, how bitter some people were at that game.  From SEC-haters to people who formerly claimed to hate Twitter, there was much bitterness over the game itself.  It was boring!  Where is the offense?  These are the top two teams in the country?  Andrew Luck would shred these defenses.  Or just take these comments posted on some website:

–Neither team looked impressive, let alone “BCS worthy”.  The game was over-hyped, klutzy and, frankly, boring.  Please, stop the spin…..

–I was only able to catch the overtime but any game that contains no touchdowns and a fistload of missed field goals is no “game of the century”. Of course the SEC fanatics will spew out canards about the “great defense”

–Anyone who thinks either Alabama or LSU have a “college level QB” is just dumb!  This game was a bore because they neither have good teams, just mediocre teams with patsy schedules.

–Horrible, boring game. A bunch of big, fast jocks who can’t play as a team. No passing or kicking games.

–SEC football is considered “superior” not because the play on the field is great but because 100,000 screamin’, frenzied, liquored-up southerners on their way to the Piggly-Wiggly make it seem that way.  Seriously.  9-6 ?! Doesn’t even qualify as “Game of The Day.”

–Number one and numnber two—Balony! Real  number one and number two find ways to put up 7 points on the board at some point in the game. LSU and Alabama should not even be in the top ten.

And each complaint about that game missed the point.  It was not about style points, or being exciting, or 52-45 scores or shredding defenses.  It was about defenses shredding the offenses.

If you bought into the “Game of the Century” hype and came away from the Alabama/LSU game disappointed, then you are a fucking moron!  The hype was way overdone and should have been ignored from the beginning.  However, this game was between the two top teams in the country and these were teams built on defense!  And if you watched and became disappointed because there was very little scoring, then again you are an idiot because apparently you have never watched SEC football before in your life!

Let’s start with those defenses.  Going into the game, these were two of the top defenses in the country.  Alabama came in ranked number one in scoring defense, rushing defense, and scoring defense, as well as second in pass defense.  LSU was number two in scoring defense, top five in rushing and total defense, and top ten in passing defense.  The success of these two teams has been predicated on their defense, not their offense.  So, you knew that these defenses would be front and center in this game.

So, why would anyone expect a high-scoring game?  Ask nearly any college football analyst and they will tell you that these are STILL the top two defenses in the country.  To complain about the score and lack of trips into the end zone is to miss what makes these two teams great.

This is why the incompetent Chris Dufresne meanders through an argument that lacks any real value.  At one point he credits the defenses with being stellar, but then follows it up with questions about quarterback play.  Really?  You do recognize that in the case of Alabama, their offense is built around running the ball, yeah?  You do recognize that when Alabama won titles in 1992 and 2009 that it was NOT on the arm of the quarterback…but by putting quarterbacks on their backs!  Stick with what you know, which apparently is NOT SEC football!

And before I move on, Dufresne also thinks that it is reasonable to suggest that Andrew Luck would be able to pick a few holes in the defenses of LSU and Alabama.  Perhaps, as Luck is perhaps the best QB this season.  BUT, do not forget that Luck has faced some of the worst defenses in the country.  Let’s not pull a literally Suck for Luck just yet, Mr. Dufresne.

Nevertheless, you knew that defenses would be the star of the Alabama-LSU game; not offenses.  So stop bitching about the lack of scoring.  What made it even more humorous was these same people were praising the scoring-frenzy that was Oklahoma State v. Kansas State.  No complaints about the lack of defense?  Really?  If you were looking for offense, you should have been watching that track meet and not Alabama/LSU.  You knew what you were getting from the beginning.  Even if you bought into the pre-game hype, you knew that all of the hype was on the defense and NOT the offense!!!

Get over the defensive battle and lack of scoring.  That is what good defensive teams do; shut down offenses.  Pay attention to these things and you will learn not to be disappointed.

[QUICK SIDE NOTE: I do find it humorous that many of the same people who love a 9-6 defensive battle are many of the same people who hate soccer for its lack of scoring].

But what of those offenses?  Not great, to be sure.  But Alabama did come into the game with the 22nd ranked offense in the country.  That was better than nine of the twelve teams of the Pac-12; it was only middle of the pack in the Big 12.  Keep in mind that on average, Alabama did that against statistically better defenses.  Thus, the offense of Alabama was pretty respectable.  The same could not be said of LSU (81st going into the game).

Still, LSU held Alabama to a season-low 295 yards, over 162 yards below their season average.  That eclipsed the previous low by Alabama set in the Penn State game (359 total yards).  Alabama’s rushing total — the strength of the Crimson Tide — was the lowest on the season, while the passing numbers fell in the middle.  From LSU’s side, the 295 was the third-highest allowed by the Tigers; West Virginia (533) was by far the most, followed by Oregon (335).  Notice the opponents here — Alabama’s previous low was against a statistically high-ranking defense (Penn State at 8th), and LSU’s two highest yards allowed were against two high-octane offenses.  Alabama performed well against a top flight defense that has only yielded big yards against top offenses.

As for the LSU offense, their 239 was their lowest output of the season, beating out the 273 they put up against Oregon.  For Alabama’s offense, it was the second-most yards allowed after the 251 given up to Penn State.  LSU ran for 148 yards, the most given up by Alabama.  While it does not resonate as much as the examination of Alabama’s offense versus LSU’s defense, the fact remains that LSU found a way to move the ball against a defense that shut down teams all season.

Where was the offense, critics complain?  It was there moving the ball against the top two defenses in the country.  But when it came to scoring, those defenses tightened up.  One would expect a team like Stanford or Oklahoma State to be able to move the ball and score points when they get the chance.  Why not also expect Alabama or LSU to kill scoring chances whey they get the chance?

Now, I am by no means attempting to claim that Alabama and LSU are Houston and Oklahoma State.  And yes, I get that yards do not equal points, which were lacking.  And yes, Jarrett Lee, Jordan Jefferson and A.J. McCarron are NOT Case Keenam, Nick Foles or Bryant Moniz.

But, McCarron’s 199 yards passing were more than Texas Tech’s Seth Doege put up against Iowa State, one of the worst defenses in the country, and only seven yards less than Andrew Luck put up against Oregon State, another poor defense.  Just saying.

Was this the “Game of the Century”?  Of course not!  Anyone who thought so going into the game was foolish.

But the same can be said about those who expected lots of points and offense.  How foolish can one be to have watched the LSU-Alabama game expecting 52-45!  Was it boring?  Yes.  But that is because “average” viewer has ADD and expects lots of action.  People love the big plays and high-scoring offenses.  So, it was “boring” in terms of action, but excellent in terms of defenses and strategy (even if some of it was questionable).

Recall the scene from Natural Born Killers where the old Native American is telling the story of the snake.  You turned on the game knowing what it was going to be.  Don’t be surprised that you got a defensive battle!

Or, to paraphrase the old man…”Look bitches!  You knew this was going to be a defensive game!”


2011 Uncle Popov NFL Power Rankings (Week 8)

Not much in the way of altering the formula needed as the delay in releasing it got it to where I wanted it.  We do have a new number one in the polls — Pittsburgh.  Again, I will include both rankings (formula-based and ranking-composite) until I decide which one best reflects reality.

FORMULATED RANKING

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Pittsburgh Steelers

14.786

2

1

2

New England Patriots

14.369

1

-1

3

Baltimore Ravens

14.129

3

4

Green Bay Packers

13.842

4

5

Atlanta Falcons

13.401

6

1

6

New Orleans Saints

13.088

5

-1

7

New York Giants

12.586

8

1

8

New York Jets

12.186

9

1

9

Philadelphia Eagles

12.169

10

1

10

San Diego Chargers

11.970

7

-3

11

Chicago Bears

11.780

11

12

Tennessee Titans

11.273

14

2

13

Indianapolis Colts

11.089

12

-1

14

Dallas Cowboys

10.751

13

-1

15

Houston Texans

10.592

16

1

16

Minnesota Vikings

10.573

18

2

17

San Francisco 49ers

10.487

17

18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

10.352

15

-3

19

Cincinnati Bengals

9.999

19

20

Buffalo Bills

9.402

21

1

21

Oakland Raiders

8.940

22

1

22

Carolina Panthers

8.889

20

-2

23

Miami Dolphins

8.611

23

24

Washington Redskins

8.444

24

25

Arizona Cardinals

8.407

26

1

26

Kansas City Chiefs

8.367

28

2

27

Denver Broncos

8.214

25

-2

28

Jacksonville Jaguars

8.132

27

-1

29

Detroit Lions

7.578

30

1

30

Cleveland Browns

7.568

29

-1

31

Seattle Seahawks

7.061

31

32

St. Louis Rams

5.069

32

COMPOSITE RANKING

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Pittsburgh Steelers

30.092

3

2

2

New England Patriots

29.317

1

-1

3

Green Bay Packers

28.893

4

1

4

New Orleans Saints

28.275

2

-2

5

Baltimore Ravens

28.156

6

1

6

Atlanta Falcons

28.075

5

-1

7

New York Giants

26.810

7

8

Philadelphia Eagles

26.020

8

9

Chicago Bears

21.631

9

10

New York Jets

20.561

11

1

11

Dallas Cowboys

20.105

10

-1

12

Minnesota Vikings

19.686

14

2

13

San Diego Chargers

19.092

12

-1

14

Tennessee Titans

18.790

16

2

15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

17.500

13

-2

16

Houston Texans

17.000

17

1

17

Carolina Panthers

16.800

15

-2

18

Indianapolis Colts

15.820

18

19

San Francisco 49ers

15.750

19

20

Cincinnati Bengals

13.797

21

1

21

Washington Redskins

12.750

20

-1

22

Buffalo Bills

11.000

23

1

23

Miami Dolphins

10.772

22

-1

24

Detroit Lions

9.750

24

25

Arizona Cardinals

9.271

25

26

Oakland Raiders

7.500

27

1

27

Denver Broncos

7.250

26

-1

28

Kansas City Chiefs

6.017

30

2

29

Jacksonville Jaguars

6.000

28

-1

30

Cleveland Browns

5.750

29

-1

31

Seattle Seahawks

4.954

31

32

St. Louis Rams

2.250

32


2011 Uncle Popov Top 23 [Week 9]

Stability in the formula as I think I have it where I like it.  Although, next week the recruiting measure will be updated.

WEEK 9!!!

Rank

TEAM

Points

Last Week

CHANGE

1

Alabama

17.99045546

1

2

TCU

16.2806621

2

3

LSU

15.58805445

4

1

4

Boise State

15.54652753

5

1

5

Oregon

15.54242373

3

-2

6

Oklahoma

15.30340882

6

7

Florida

15.07401864

7

8

Oklahoma State

14.71725992

8

9

Ohio State

14.60374943

9

10

Auburn

14.11952218

10

11

Utah

13.86135749

11

12

Texas

13.76002241

14

2

13

Virginia Tech

13.70759746

12

-1

14

Penn State

13.62646841

15

1

15

Nebraska

13.5726602

17

2

16

Stanford

13.50026617

16

17

Wisconsin

13.49564914

13

-4

18

Southern California

13.15592904

18

19

Arkansas

13.12772031

19

20

West Virginia

12.93126214

21

1

21

Michigan State

12.88445447

20

-1

22

South Carolina

12.82638194

22

23

Georgia

12.71713468

24

1

  • Drop Outs: Texas Tech (last week – 23th; this week – 25th)
  • Newbies: Georgia (last week – 24th; this week – 23rd)
  • Movin’ On Up [biggest leaper]: Tulsa (last week – 46th; this week 42nd)
  • Biggest Loser [largest fall]: Wisconsin (last week 13th; this week 17th) 
  • In the Basement (Bottom Five): New Mexico; Akron; Western Kentucky; Washington State; Eastern Michigan

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